Yuan received a four-year low market next year is expected to be off 4%
Phoenix International iMarkets reported weaker still in the offshore renminbi against the US dollar Tuesday and volatile, especially after the release of worse-than-expected Chinese import and export data, the offshore renminbi declines accelerated once more ended down more than 230 points yesterday to a three-month low of 6.4950. Midday is suspected intervention soared more than 140 points, then fell back quickly.
in offshore renminbi-dollar (CNY) and offshore renminbi-dollar (CNH) exchange rate differences expanded to nearly 700 ideas.
dealers believe that offshore before devaluation expected strong, but by midday near 6.5000 integer points 100 points on the surge in suspected Central Bank intervention, but it later fell back quickly, which seems to show a managed devaluation, does not want to CNH reduced too quickly. Approaching the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years, China's Central Bank should wait.
"2:30, CNH has risen more than more than 100 ideas, perhaps intervention of central banks overseas, may signal tells markets not so fast near the 6.5000. "One of the overseas branches of Chinese banks, dealers said, central banks will probably be key points of currency intervention to slow the devaluation speed, but the speed of intervention can only change may not be able to reverse the trend.
another foreign trader said, "it's hard to judge this afternoon that a wave of intervention, recalled in early November a couple of times, too, market a bit frightened, after all, the price difference between the two places is too wide. "
China's latest data show in November, imports and exports falling for the fifth consecutive month, but under the influence of base decline narrowed from the previous month, annual foreign trade growth almost a foregone conclusion, which will be much less than 6% growth target set earlier this year. Exacerbated the market's fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Yifan Hu, Chief China Economist of UBS wealth management, said the Fed raising interest rates soon, China's rapid flight of capital, still a downward pressure on the currency, devaluation of the Renminbi against the dollar by 2016 from 3% to 5%, at between 6.6 to 6.8, but the middle is still robust.
HSBC analysis, currency trading more volatile and cut the end of 2016 forecast to 6.7 Yuan against the US dollar. Paul Mackel and Wang Ju, analysts said in a recent research report, the Yuan is expected to be further reduced next year, accompanied by more two-way volatility.
as China's financial opening, promote capital account convertibility and exchange rate reform, China's internal risk in widening the channels of output, from the previous trading to expand investment and financial flows under financial. Internationalization of private sector asset allocations will be more performance-foreign direct investment (ODI) and the portfolio diversification. Markets are able to view positively the resulting capital outflows, relative to the current "hot money outflows" (withdrawal of the carry trade and enterprises pay/hedge foreign debt exposure) outflows.
local 17:00, the offshore renminbi-dollar-0.21% 6.4861, intraday low of 6.4950 since September 10 lows, after the midday decline has slowed. Yuan against the dollar in early trading Tuesday continued tumbling, and refresh the 3.5-month lows, since 8.11 change prices low.